Boomers Moving Will Be More Like a Gentle Tide Than a Tsunami

Have you heard the term “Silver Tsunami” getting tossed around recently? If so, here’s what you really need to know. That phrase refers to the idea that a lot of baby boomers are going to move or downsize all at once. And the fear is that a sudden influx of homes for sale would have a big impact on housing. That’s because it would create a whole lot more competition for smaller homes and would throw off the balance of supply and demand, which ultimately would impact home prices. But here’s the thing. There are a couple of faults in that logic. Let’s break them down and put your mind at ease. Not All Baby Boomers Plan To MoveFor starters, plenty of baby boomers don’t plan on moving at all. A study from the AARP says more than half of adults aged 65 and older want to stay in their homes and not move as they age (see graph below):While it’s true circumstances may change and some people who don’t plan to move (the red in the chart above) may realize they need to down the road, the vast majority are counting on aging in place. As for those who stay put, they’ll likely modify their homes as their needs change over time. And when updating their existing home won’t work, some will buy a second home and keep their original one as an investment to fuel generational wealth for their loved ones. As an article from Inman explains:“Many boomers have no desire to retire fully and take up less space . . . Many will modify their current home, and the wealthiest will opt to have multiple homes.”Even Those Who Do Move Won’t Do It All at OnceWhile not all baby boomers are looking to sell their homes and move – the ones who do won’t all do it at the same time. Instead, it’ll happen slowly over many years. As Freddie Mac says:“We forecast the ‘tsunami’ will be more like a tide, bringing a gradual exit of 9.2 million Boomers by 2035 . . .”As Mark Fleming, Chief Economist at First American, says:“Demographics are never a tsunami. The baby boomer generation is almost two decades of births. That means they’re going to take about two decades to work their way through.”Bottom LineIf you're stressed about a Silver Tsunami shaking the housing market overnight, don't be. Baby boomers will move slowly over a much longer period of time.

MORE

What’s the Latest with Mortgage Rates?

Recent headlines may leave you wondering what’s next for mortgage rates. Maybe you’d previously heard there were going to be cuts this year that would bring rates down. That refers to the Federal Reserve (the Fed) and what they do to their Fed Funds Rate. While cutting, or lowering, the Fed Funds Rate doesn’t directly determine mortgage rates, it does tend to impact them. But when the Fed met last week, a cut didn’t happen — at least, not yet. There are a lot of factors the Fed considered in their recent decision and most of them are complex. But you don’t need to be bogged down by those finer details. What you really want is the answer to this question: does that mean mortgage rates aren’t going to fall? Here’s what you need to know. Mortgage Rates Are Still Expected To Drop This YearWhile it hasn’t happened yet, that doesn’t mean it won’t. Even Jerome Powell, the Chairman of the Fed, says they still plan to make cuts this year, assuming inflation cools:“We believe that our policy rate is likely at its peak for this tightening cycle and that, if the economy evolves broadly as expected, it will likely be appropriate to begin dialing back policy restraint at some point this year.”When this happens, history shows mortgage rates will likely follow. That means hope isn’t lost. As a recent article from Business Insider explains:“As inflation comes down and the Fed is able to start lowering rates, mortgage rates should go down, too. . .”What This Means for YouBut you don’t necessarily want to wait for it to happen. Mortgage rates are notoriously hard to forecast. There are so many factors at play and any one of those can change the projections as the economy shifts. And it’s why the experts offer this advice. As Mark Fleming, Chief Economist at First American, says:“Well, mortgage rate projections are just that, projections, not promises and don't forget how hard it is to forecast them. . . So my advice is to never try to time the market . . . If one is financially prepared and buying a home aligns with your lifestyle goals, then it could be the right time to purchase. And there's always the refinance option if mortgage rates are lower in the future.”Basically, if you’re looking to move and trying to time the market, don’t. If you’re ready, willing, and able to move, it may still be worth it to do it now, especially if you can find the home you’ve been searching for.Bottom LineIf you’re looking to buy a home, connect with a local real estate agent so you have someone keeping you up-to-date on mortgage rates and helping you make the best decision possible.

MORE